This post is to analyze AICSCC Cutoff Marks trends.

All of us do know that we can only predict cutoff and no one can be sure until the result is out. Cut off marks are dependent on three factors.

1) Quality of Question Paper (Toughness)
2) The Number of aspirants appearing for the entrance exam
3) The number of reserved seats for each category

Here I have listed data which I’m collecting for 5 consecutive years. These data are exclusive to upschub.com.

AICSCC Cutoff Marks:

Full time Cutoff Marks:

Part time Cutoff Marks:

Here you can simply notice that Cutoff marks are in increasing trend every year. There are some exceptions like 2016 SC, SC(A), BCM. But in overall you have to score at least 5 marks more than the previous year.

For 2019 batch many serious UPSC aspirants felt the question paper is difficult as it had many facts. But the cut off increased drastically. Students who have prepared for TNPSC exam cracked this facts-based question paper as a cake walk. 
So we can understand that facts present in the question paper are directly proportional to cut off marks. More the facts more difficult to clear.

In this analysis, I have considered cut off of First list alone. Because the second list would increase the standard deviation a lot. Also, the second list is just a luck factor.

Note: If you don’t get bored of maths continue reading beyond this line.

Trend:

Full Time Cutoff Variation:

Part time Cutoff Variation:

Category	% of Increase from 2015 to 2016	% of Increase from 2016 to 2017	% of Increase from 2017 to 2018	% of Increase from 2018 to 2019
Scheduled Tribes	0%	11.11%	17.5%	4.26%
Scheduled Castes	-4.44%	6.98%	-17.39%	13.16%
Scheduled Castes (Aruthathiyinar)	-4.88%	7.69%	-21.43%	9.09%
Most Backward Classes	0%	1.92%	-13.21%	10.87%
Backward Classes (Muslims)	-4.17%	8.7%	-6%	-2.13%
Backward Classes	0%	7.55%	-17.54%	10.64%
Other Category	2%	7.84%	1.82%	3.57%
Differently Abled	48.72%	70%	11.76%	-2.63%

Scheduled Tribes:

Only 3 seats for ST. There is a steady increase in the cutoff. Even in the toughest question paper 2015, there was a 0% increase. Which means there is no negative change. So the competition is very high.  In 2019 28.57% increase, which is the highest deviation in all categories except Differently Abled. 

Scheduled Castes:

Total Seats 92. So there is no steep variation in cut off. Cut off reduced in 2016 and 2018. the increment is not very high like ST in 2019. 10.87% increment in 2019. 

Scheduled Castes (Aruthathiyinar):

Total seats 18. Same like Scheduled castes there is no steep variations in the cutoff. Some years there is increment and some there is decrement. But remember that in 2019 cut off increased nearly 10%.

Most Backward Classes:

Total seats 40. Observe that 0%, 1.92%, 5.66%, 7.14% increment.  Cutoff increases steadily. Probably for next batch, there may be 10% increment.

Backward Classes (Muslim):

Total seats 7. There is a significant increase in cut off. try to score 10% more than previous year cutoff.

Backward Classes:

Total Seats 54. Even though there is an increase in cutoff it is not very much. But the mark is equal to Open category or sometimes even higher than Open category. 

Open Category:

Total Seats 4. The increment is similar to BC category. the cutoff is lower than BC too. This is actually a controversy. The open category should be the first seats to be filled. So the candidate who is in top 4 positions should be alotted this seat. Even if those candidates belong to BC or SC or any other community. But AICSCC reserves this seat for candidates who have chosen Open category as their community. This is against reservation policy in India. Anyhow many of the worthy students have used this loophole and got benefited. Hope they can answer this through RTI.

Differently Abled:

Total seats 7. his is the most fluctuating category. Cutoff changes based on the number of differently abled candidates applying for the exam. So it depends on their luck too.